Predictions · Ligue 3 · outside model coverage

FC Fleury 91

00
Lost

Amiens

The model leans FC Fleury 91 at 54%. Expected goals: FC Fleury 91 2.02, Amiens 0.92. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 53%. FC Fleury 91 won 0 of their last 4; Amiens won 2 of their last 4.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1FC Fleury 9162%1.62
XDraw23%4.40
2Amiens15%6.49

Pick: FC Fleury 91. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 62%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 85%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.02 – 0.92
LineOverUnder
1.579%21%
2.556%44%
3.534%66%
Both teams to scoreYes52%No48%

Most likely scores

  • 2010.8%
  • 1010.7%
  • 219.9%
  • 119.8%
  • 307.2%
  • 316.7%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: FC Fleury 91 −1
FC Fleury 91 lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.539%61%
-139%24%37%
-0.563%37%
063%21%16%
+0.584%16%
+184%11%5%
+1.595%5%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.