Predictions · Ligue 3 · outside model coverage

Rouen

30
Won

Quevilly

The model leans Rouen at 50%. Expected goals: Rouen 1.39, Quevilly 0.74. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 60%. Rouen won 3 of their last 5; Quevilly won 1 of their last 4.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Rouen51%1.95
XDraw30%3.32
2Quevilly19%5.36

Pick: Rouen. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 81%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.39 – 0.74
LineOverUnder
1.563%37%
2.536%64%
3.517%83%
Both teams to scoreYes39%No61%

Most likely scores

  • 1016.6%
  • 1112.2%
  • 0012.0%
  • 2011.5%
  • 018.8%
  • 218.5%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Rouen −0.5
Rouen lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.526%74%
-126%27%48%
-0.552%48%
052%28%20%
+0.580%20%
+180%14%6%
+1.594%6%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.