Predictions · Ligue 3 · outside model coverage

Paris 13 Atletico

10
Lost

Quevilly

The model leans Draw at 33%. Expected goals: Paris 13 Atletico 0.78, Quevilly 0.92. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 66%. Paris 13 Atletico won 2 of their last 3; Quevilly won 1 of their last 4.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Paris 13 Atletico28%3.63
XDraw37%2.74
2Quevilly36%2.79

Pick: Draw. Calibrated probability 33% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 72%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 0.78 – 0.92
LineOverUnder
1.551%49%
2.524%76%
3.59%91%
Both teams to scoreYes33%No67%

Most likely scores

  • 0018.3%
  • 0116.9%
  • 1014.2%
  • 1113.1%
  • 027.8%
  • 126.0%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 61% · BTTS No 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Paris 13 Atletico 0
Paris 13 Atletico lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.59%91%
-19%20%71%
-0.529%71%
029%34%37%
+0.563%37%
+163%24%13%
+1.587%13%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.