Predictions · Ligue 3 · outside model coverage

Villefranche Beaujolais

20
Won

Paris 13 Atletico

The model leans Villefranche Beaujolais at 42%. Expected goals: Villefranche Beaujolais 1.14, Paris 13 Atletico 0.65. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 66%. Villefranche Beaujolais won 1 of their last 4; Paris 13 Atletico won 2 of their last 3.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Villefranche Beaujolais46%2.17
XDraw34%2.94
2Paris 13 Atletico20%5.03

Pick: Villefranche Beaujolais. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 80%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.14 – 0.65
LineOverUnder
1.553%47%
2.527%73%
3.511%89%
Both teams to scoreYes33%No67%

Most likely scores

  • 1019.0%
  • 0016.7%
  • 1112.4%
  • 0110.9%
  • 2010.8%
  • 217.1%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 60% · BTTS No 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Villefranche Beaujolais −0.5
Villefranche Beaujolais lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.520%80%
-120%27%53%
-0.547%53%
047%32%21%
+0.579%21%
+179%15%6%
+1.594%6%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.