Bourg en Bresse Peronnas
Villefranche Beaujolais
The model leans Villefranche Beaujolais at 36%. Expected goals: Bourg en Bresse Peronnas 0.88, Villefranche Beaujolais 1.05. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 61%. Bourg en Bresse Peronnas won 1 of their last 3; Villefranche Beaujolais won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bourg en Bresse Peronnas | 28% | 3.52 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 34% | 2.94 | – | – | – |
| 2Villefranche Beaujolais | 38% | 2.66 | – | – | – |
Pick: Villefranche Beaujolais. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.88 – 1.05| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 2.5 | 30% | 70% |
| 3.5 | 13% | 87% |
| Both teams to score | Yes38% | No62% |
Most likely scores
- 0–115.3%
- 0–014.6%
- 1–113.4%
- 1–012.8%
- 0–28.0%
- 1–27.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Bourg en Bresse Peronnas 0| Bourg en Bresse Peronnas line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| -1 | 10% | 20% | 70% |
| -0.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| 0 | 30% | 31% | 39% |
| +0.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
| +1 | 61% | 23% | 15% |
| +1.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.