Valenciennes
Bourg en Bresse Peronnas
The model leans Valenciennes at 45%. Expected goals: Valenciennes 1.24, Bourg en Bresse Peronnas 0.69. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 63%. Valenciennes won 1 of their last 5; Bourg en Bresse Peronnas won 1 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Valenciennes | 48% | 2.07 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.10 | – | – | – |
| 2Bourg en Bresse Peronnas | 19% | 5.15 | – | – | – |
Pick: Valenciennes. Calibrated probability 45% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.24 – 0.69| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 2.5 | 31% | 69% |
| 3.5 | 13% | 87% |
| Both teams to score | Yes36% | No64% |
Most likely scores
- 1–018.0%
- 0–014.4%
- 1–112.4%
- 2–011.2%
- 0–110.0%
- 2–17.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Valenciennes −0.5| Valenciennes line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| -1 | 23% | 27% | 50% |
| -0.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| 0 | 50% | 30% | 21% |
| +0.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
| +1 | 79% | 15% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.