Paris 13 Atletico
Valenciennes
The model leans Draw at 35%. Expected goals: Paris 13 Atletico 0.77, Valenciennes 0.91. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 67%. Paris 13 Atletico won 2 of their last 3; Valenciennes won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Paris 13 Atletico | 28% | 3.62 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 37% | 2.71 | – | – | – |
| 2Valenciennes | 35% | 2.82 | – | – | – |
Pick: Draw. Calibrated probability 35% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.77 – 0.91| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 2.5 | 24% | 76% |
| 3.5 | 9% | 91% |
| Both teams to score | Yes32% | No68% |
Most likely scores
- 0–018.8%
- 0–117.0%
- 1–014.4%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–27.7%
- 1–25.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 63% · BTTS No 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Paris 13 Atletico 0| Paris 13 Atletico line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| -1 | 9% | 20% | 71% |
| -0.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| 0 | 29% | 34% | 37% |
| +0.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| +1 | 63% | 24% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.