Orléans
Rouen
The model leans Orléans at 29%. Expected goals: Orléans 1.07, Rouen 1.06. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 56%. Orléans won 2 of their last 3; Rouen won 3 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Orléans | 34% | 2.93 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.08 | – | – | – |
| 2Rouen | 33% | 2.99 | – | – | – |
Pick: Orléans. Calibrated probability 29% (raw model output 34%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 68%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.07 – 1.06| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 2.5 | 36% | 64% |
| 3.5 | 17% | 83% |
| Both teams to score | Yes43% | No57% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.5%
- 1–012.8%
- 0–112.6%
- 0–011.9%
- 2–17.2%
- 1–27.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Orléans 0| Orléans line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| -1 | 14% | 21% | 64% |
| -0.5 | 36% | – | 64% |
| 0 | 36% | 30% | 35% |
| +0.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| +1 | 65% | 21% | 14% |
| +1.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.