Werder Bremen
RB Leipzig
The model leans RB Leipzig at 51%. Expected goals: Werder Bremen 0.96, RB Leipzig 1.88. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 53%. Werder Bremen won 3 of their last 4; RB Leipzig won 1 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Werder Bremen | 18% | 5.66 | 4.33 | 22% | −4 |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.12 | 4.00 | 24% | +1 |
| 2RB Leipzig | 58% | 1.72 | 1.73 | 55% | +3 |
Pick: RB Leipzig. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 58%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.96 – 1.88| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 3.5 | 32% | 68% |
| Both teams to score | Yes52% | No48% |
Most likely scores
model · bookmaker- 0–111.0%–
- 1–110.5%12.5%
- 0–210.4%–
- 1–29.9%–
- 0–36.5%–
- 1–36.2%–
Bookmaker column: implied probability from the listed correct-score price, margin included (only the prices the book lists).
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: RB Leipzig −1| Werder Bremen line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 6% | – | 94% |
| -1 | 6% | 12% | 81% |
| -0.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| 0 | 19% | 22% | 59% |
| +0.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| +1 | 41% | 24% | 35% |
| +1.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: opening odds, Bet365| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap | Werder Bremen +0.75 | 47% | 2.15 | 1.95 | 49% | −3 |
| Asian handicap | RB Leipzig -0.75 | 53% | 1.87 | 1.90 | 51% | +3 |
| Draw no bet | Werder Bremen | 23% | 4.28 | 3.40 | 28% | −4 |
| Draw no bet | RB Leipzig | 77% | 1.30 | 1.30 | 72% | +4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.92 | 1.50 | 63% | −10 |
| Both teams to score | No | 48% | 2.09 | 2.50 | 38% | +10 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.