Malaga
Deportivo A Coruña
The model leans Malaga at 40%. Expected goals: Malaga 1.50, Deportivo A Coruña 1.19. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 55%. Malaga won 0 of their last 3; Deportivo A Coruña won 3 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, 1xBet_Spain| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Malaga | 43% | 2.31 | 2.42 | 41% | +3 |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.58 | 3.19 | 31% | −3 |
| 2Deportivo A Coruña | 29% | 3.47 | 3.47 | 28% | 0 |
Pick: Malaga. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.50 – 1.19| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 3.5 | 28% | 72% |
| Both teams to score | Yes54% | No46% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.1%
- 1–010.2%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–18.1%
- 2–07.7%
- 1–27.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 38% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Malaga −0.5| Malaga line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| -1 | 22% | 22% | 56% |
| -0.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| 0 | 44% | 26% | 30% |
| +0.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
| +1 | 70% | 18% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.