Sevilla
Rayo Vallecano
The model leans Rayo Vallecano at 37%. Expected goals: Sevilla 1.04, Rayo Vallecano 1.20. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 53%. Sevilla won 3 of their last 4; Rayo Vallecano won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_Spain| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sevilla | 30% | 3.29 | 2.45 | 39% | −8 |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.19 | 3.00 | 32% | 0 |
| 2Rayo Vallecano | 38% | 2.61 | 3.20 | 30% | +9 |
Pick: Rayo Vallecano. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.04 – 1.20| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| Both teams to score | Yes45% | No55% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.3%
- 0–112.7%
- 1–011.0%
- 0–010.6%
- 1–28.0%
- 0–27.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sevilla 0| Sevilla line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 20% | 68% |
| -0.5 | 32% | – | 68% |
| 0 | 32% | 29% | 40% |
| +0.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
| +1 | 60% | 23% | 17% |
| +1.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.