Spartak Moscow
Rodina
The model leans Spartak Moscow at 38%. Expected goals: Spartak Moscow 1.37, Rodina 1.15. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 52%. Spartak Moscow won 3 of their last 6; Rodina won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Spartak Moscow | 41% | 2.46 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.42 | – | – | – |
| 2Rodina | 30% | 3.31 | – | – | – |
Pick: Spartak Moscow. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.37 – 1.15| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 46% | 54% |
| 3.5 | 25% | 75% |
| Both teams to score | Yes51% | No49% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.7%
- 1–011.0%
- 0–19.3%
- 2–18.7%
- 0–08.0%
- 2–07.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Spartak Moscow 0| Spartak Moscow line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| -1 | 20% | 22% | 58% |
| -0.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| 0 | 42% | 27% | 31% |
| +0.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
| +1 | 69% | 19% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.