Swansea City
Wrexham
The model leans Swansea City at 38%. Expected goals: Swansea City 1.61, Wrexham 1.41. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 62%. Swansea City won 4 of their last 6; Wrexham won 2 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Swansea City | 41% | 2.42 | 2.10 | 44% | −3 |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.81 | 3.25 | 28% | −2 |
| 2Wrexham | 32% | 3.08 | 3.40 | 27% | +5 |
Pick: Swansea City. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.61 – 1.41| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 3.5 | 36% | 64% |
| Both teams to score | Yes61% | No39% |
Most likely scores
model · bookmaker- 1–111.1%16.7%
- 2–18.9%11.1%
- 1–07.8%12.5%
- 1–27.8%8.3%
- 0–16.9%9.1%
- 2–06.3%10.0%
Bookmaker column: implied probability from the listed correct-score price, margin included (only the prices the book lists).
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Swansea City 0| Swansea City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| -1 | 21% | 21% | 58% |
| -0.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| 0 | 42% | 24% | 34% |
| +0.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
| +1 | 66% | 18% | 15% |
| +1.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: opening odds, Bet365| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap | Swansea City -0.25 | 48% | 2.08 | 1.85 | 52% | −4 |
| Asian handicap | Wrexham +0.25 | 52% | 1.93 | 2.00 | 48% | +4 |
| Draw no bet | Swansea City | 56% | 1.79 | 1.50 | 63% | −7 |
| Draw no bet | Wrexham | 44% | 2.27 | 2.50 | 38% | +7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.65 | 1.73 | 54% | +7 |
| Both teams to score | No | 39% | 2.53 | 2.00 | 46% | −7 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.