Pardubice
Mlada Boleslav
The model leans Pardubice at 41%. Expected goals: Pardubice 1.56, Mlada Boleslav 1.17. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 56%. Pardubice won 1 of their last 6; Mlada Boleslav won 3 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Pardubice | 45% | 2.22 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.64 | – | – | – |
| 2Mlada Boleslav | 27% | 3.64 | – | – | – |
Pick: Pardubice. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.56 – 1.17| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 3.5 | 29% | 71% |
| Both teams to score | Yes55% | No45% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.9%
- 1–010.1%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–07.9%
- 0–17.6%
- 1–27.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 47% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Pardubice −0.5| Pardubice line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| -1 | 24% | 23% | 54% |
| -0.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| 0 | 46% | 25% | 29% |
| +0.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
| +1 | 71% | 17% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.