Predictions · Cup · outside model coverage
Pisek
0–2
Won
Pardubice
The model leans Pardubice at 54%. Expected goals: Pisek 0.05, Pardubice 1.04. Over 2.5 goals 90%, both teams to score 97%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match36
63
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Pisek | 2% | 62.50 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 36% | 2.79 | – | – | – |
| 2Pardubice | 63% | 1.60 | – | – | – |
Pick: Pardubice. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 63%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 98%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.05 – 1.04| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 30% | 70% |
| 2.5 | 10% | 90% |
| 3.5 | 2% | 98% |
| Both teams to score | Yes3% | No97% |
Most likely scores
- 0–135.0%
- 0–033.7%
- 0–218.1%
- 0–36.3%
- 1–11.7%
- 1–01.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 72% · BTTS No 65%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Pardubice −1| Pisek line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 0% | – | 100% |
| -1 | 0% | 2% | 98% |
| -0.5 | 2% | – | 98% |
| 0 | 2% | 35% | 63% |
| +0.5 | 37% | – | 63% |
| +1 | 37% | 36% | 27% |
| +1.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.