Predictions · Cup · outside model coverage

Pisek

02
Won

Pardubice

The model leans Pardubice at 54%. Expected goals: Pisek 0.05, Pardubice 1.04. Over 2.5 goals 90%, both teams to score 97%.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Pisek2%62.50
XDraw36%2.79
2Pardubice63%1.60

Pick: Pardubice. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 63%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 98%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 0.05 – 1.04
LineOverUnder
1.530%70%
2.510%90%
3.52%98%
Both teams to scoreYes3%No97%

Most likely scores

  • 0135.0%
  • 0033.7%
  • 0218.1%
  • 036.3%
  • 111.7%
  • 101.7%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 72% · BTTS No 65%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Pardubice −1
Pisek lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.50%100%
-10%2%98%
-0.52%98%
02%35%63%
+0.537%63%
+137%36%27%
+1.573%27%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.