Predictions · 1. Liga · outside model coverage

Sigma Olomouc

22
Lost

Mlada Boleslav

The model leans Sigma Olomouc at 37%. Expected goals: Sigma Olomouc 1.31, Mlada Boleslav 1.10. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 50%. Sigma Olomouc won 3 of their last 6; Mlada Boleslav won 3 of their last 5.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Sigma Olomouc40%2.50
XDraw30%3.33
2Mlada Boleslav30%3.35

Pick: Sigma Olomouc. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 70%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.31 – 1.10
LineOverUnder
1.569%31%
2.543%57%
3.522%78%
Both teams to scoreYes49%No51%

Most likely scores

  • 1113.0%
  • 1011.8%
  • 019.9%
  • 009.1%
  • 218.5%
  • 207.7%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 52% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Sigma Olomouc 0
Sigma Olomouc lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.519%81%
-119%23%59%
-0.541%59%
041%27%31%
+0.569%31%
+169%19%12%
+1.588%12%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.