Jablonec
Sigma Olomouc
The model leans Jablonec at 39%. Expected goals: Jablonec 1.42, Sigma Olomouc 1.16. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 53%. Jablonec won 3 of their last 6; Sigma Olomouc won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Jablonec | 42% | 2.40 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.48 | – | – | – |
| 2Sigma Olomouc | 30% | 3.38 | – | – | – |
Pick: Jablonec. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.42 – 1.16| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 2.5 | 48% | 52% |
| 3.5 | 26% | 74% |
| Both teams to score | Yes52% | No48% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.5%
- 1–010.7%
- 2–18.9%
- 0–18.8%
- 2–07.6%
- 0–07.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 48% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Jablonec 0| Jablonec line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| -1 | 21% | 22% | 57% |
| -0.5 | 43% | – | 57% |
| 0 | 43% | 26% | 31% |
| +0.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
| +1 | 69% | 18% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.