Lens
Lorient
The model leans Lens at 54%. Expected goals: Lens 2.20, Lorient 1.09. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 60%. Lens won 2 of their last 5; Lorient won 2 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Unibet_France| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Lens | 62% | 1.62 | 1.45 | 66% | −4 |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.66 | 4.50 | 21% | 0 |
| 2Lorient | 17% | 5.93 | 7.20 | 13% | +4 |
Pick: Lens. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 62%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.20 – 1.09| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 3.5 | 42% | 58% |
| Both teams to score | Yes59% | No41% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.0%
- 1–18.9%
- 1–08.2%
- 3–17.2%
- 3–06.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Lens −1| Lens line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| -1 | 40% | 23% | 37% |
| -0.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| 0 | 63% | 20% | 18% |
| +0.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
| +1 | 82% | 11% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: opening odds, Unibet_France| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.69 | 1.65 | 57% | +2 |
| Both teams to score | No | 41% | 2.44 | 2.20 | 43% | −2 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.