Genoa
Como
The model leans Como at 51%. Expected goals: Genoa 0.84, Como 1.72. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 52%. Genoa won 1 of their last 4; Como won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Genoa | 17% | 5.94 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.87 | – | – | – |
| 2Como | 57% | 1.74 | – | – | – |
Pick: Como. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 57%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.84 – 1.72| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 47% | 53% |
| 3.5 | 25% | 75% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 0–113.3%
- 0–211.5%
- 1–111.1%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–07.7%
- 0–36.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Como −1| Genoa line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 6% | – | 94% |
| -1 | 6% | 12% | 82% |
| -0.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| 0 | 18% | 24% | 58% |
| +0.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| +1 | 42% | 26% | 33% |
| +1.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.