Boise
Richmond Kickers
The model leans Boise at 60%. Expected goals: Boise 2.35, Richmond Kickers 1.02. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 59%. Boise won 4 of their last 6; Richmond Kickers won 0 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Boise | 66% | 1.51 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 20% | 5.04 | – | – | – |
| 2Richmond Kickers | 14% | 7.13 | – | – | – |
Pick: Boise. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 66%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 86%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.35 – 1.02| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 3.5 | 43% | 57% |
| Both teams to score | Yes58% | No42% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.7%
- 2–09.5%
- 1–18.3%
- 1–08.1%
- 3–17.6%
- 3–07.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Boise −1.5| Boise line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| -1 | 44% | 23% | 33% |
| -0.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
| 0 | 67% | 18% | 15% |
| +0.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
| +1 | 85% | 10% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.