Predictions · USL League One · outside model coverage
AV Alta
3–1
Won
Sarasota Paradise
The model leans AV Alta at 53%. Expected goals: AV Alta 1.73, Sarasota Paradise 0.74. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 56%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match60
25
15
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AV Alta | 60% | 1.67 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.93 | – | – | – |
| 2Sarasota Paradise | 15% | 6.84 | – | – | – |
Pick: AV Alta. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 60%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 85%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.73 – 0.74| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 45% | 55% |
| 3.5 | 24% | 76% |
| Both teams to score | Yes43% | No57% |
Most likely scores
- 1–014.6%
- 2–012.6%
- 1–110.8%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–08.4%
- 3–07.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: AV Alta −1| AV Alta line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 35% | – | 65% |
| -1 | 35% | 26% | 39% |
| -0.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
| 0 | 61% | 23% | 16% |
| +0.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
| +1 | 84% | 11% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.