Degerfors
Djurgården
The model leans Djurgården at 54%. Expected goals: Degerfors 1.18, Djurgården 2.29. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 63%. Degerfors won 2 of their last 6; Djurgården won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Degerfors | 18% | 5.70 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.79 | – | – | – |
| 2Djurgården | 62% | 1.62 | – | – | – |
Pick: Djurgården. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 62%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.18 – 2.29| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 86% | 14% |
| 2.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 3.5 | 46% | 54% |
| Both teams to score | Yes62% | No38% |
Most likely scores
- 1–29.6%
- 1–18.4%
- 0–28.2%
- 1–37.4%
- 0–17.1%
- 0–36.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Djurgården −1| Degerfors line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 7% | – | 93% |
| -1 | 7% | 11% | 82% |
| -0.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| 0 | 18% | 19% | 62% |
| +0.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| +1 | 38% | 22% | 40% |
| +1.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.