Degerfors
Malmö FF
The model leans Malmö FF at 37%. Expected goals: Degerfors 1.59, Malmö FF 1.71. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 66%. Degerfors won 2 of their last 6; Malmö FF won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Degerfors | 35% | 2.86 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.00 | – | – | – |
| 2Malmö FF | 40% | 2.50 | – | – | – |
Pick: Malmö FF. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.59 – 1.71| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 3.5 | 42% | 58% |
| Both teams to score | Yes65% | No35% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.1%
- 1–28.6%
- 2–18.0%
- 2–26.8%
- 0–16.3%
- 1–05.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Degerfors 0| Degerfors line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| -1 | 18% | 18% | 64% |
| -0.5 | 36% | – | 64% |
| 0 | 36% | 23% | 41% |
| +0.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| +1 | 59% | 20% | 21% |
| +1.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.