Cruzeiro
Athletico Paranaense
The model leans Cruzeiro at 42%. Expected goals: Cruzeiro 1.39, Athletico Paranaense 0.96. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 52%. Cruzeiro won 1 of their last 6; Athletico Paranaense won 2 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_Brazil| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Cruzeiro | 45% | 2.21 | 1.86 | 51% | −5 |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.36 | 3.40 | 28% | +2 |
| 2Athletico Paranaense | 25% | 4.02 | 4.33 | 22% | +3 |
Pick: Cruzeiro. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 45%). Raw model output and calibrated probability are different things: the raw figure is what the model produced, the calibrated one is what past results say that raw figure has actually delivered. Calibration curve: all, 7,169 matches, fitted Aug 31. Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.39 – 0.96 · derived from expected goals| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 79% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
model · bookmaker- 1–013.2%9.1%
- 1–112.7%15.4%
- 0–09.5%11.1%
- 0–19.2%–
- 2–09.2%11.8%
- 2–18.8%11.8%
Bookmaker column: implied probability from the listed correct-score price, margin included (only the prices the book lists).
stored: Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Cruzeiro −0.5| Cruzeiro line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| -1 | 22% | 24% | 53% |
| -0.5 | 47% | – | 53% |
| 0 | 47% | 27% | 26% |
| +0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| +1 | 74% | 17% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: opening odds, Bet365_Brazil| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap | Cruzeiro -0.5 | 47% | 2.15 | 1.88 | 51% | −5 |
| Asian handicap | Athletico Paranaense +0.5 | 53% | 1.87 | 1.98 | 49% | +5 |
| Draw no bet | Cruzeiro | 65% | 1.55 | 1.36 | 69% | −4 |
| Draw no bet | Athletico Paranaense | 35% | 2.82 | 3.00 | 31% | +4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.16 | 1.91 | 50% | −4 |
| Both teams to score | No | 54% | 1.86 | 1.91 | 50% | +4 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.