Vasco da Gama
Santos FC
The model leans Vasco da Gama at 37%. Expected goals: Vasco da Gama 1.56, Santos FC 1.46. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 62%. Vasco da Gama won 4 of their last 4; Santos FC won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_Brazil| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Vasco da Gama | 39% | 2.56 | 1.86 | 50% | −11 |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.79 | 3.50 | 27% | 0 |
| 2Santos FC | 35% | 2.90 | 4.00 | 23% | +11 |
Pick: Vasco da Gama. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.56 – 1.46| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 3.5 | 36% | 64% |
| Both teams to score | Yes61% | No39% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.1%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–28.1%
- 1–07.7%
- 0–17.1%
- 2–26.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Vasco da Gama 0| Vasco da Gama line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| -1 | 20% | 20% | 60% |
| -0.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| 0 | 40% | 24% | 36% |
| +0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| +1 | 64% | 19% | 17% |
| +1.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.