Fluminense
Palmeiras
The model leans Palmeiras at 37%. Expected goals: Fluminense 1.03, Palmeiras 1.22. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 54%. Fluminense won 0 of their last 4; Palmeiras won 2 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_Brazil| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Fluminense | 30% | 3.38 | 2.82 | 34% | −4 |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.20 | 3.20 | 30% | +2 |
| 2Palmeiras | 39% | 2.55 | 2.55 | 37% | +2 |
Pick: Palmeiras. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.03 – 1.22| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| Both teams to score | Yes45% | No55% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.3%
- 0–112.9%
- 1–010.9%
- 0–010.6%
- 1–28.1%
- 0–27.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Fluminense 0| Fluminense line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 19% | 69% |
| -0.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| 0 | 31% | 29% | 40% |
| +0.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
| +1 | 60% | 23% | 18% |
| +1.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.