Fluminense
0–0
Lost
Bahia
The model leans Fluminense at 51%. Expected goals: Fluminense 1.85, Bahia 1.01. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 55%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match56
25
19
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Fluminense | 56% | 1.79 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.05 | – | – | – |
| 2Bahia | 19% | 5.18 | – | – | – |
Pick: Fluminense. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 56%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.85 – 1.01| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 3.5 | 32% | 68% |
| Both teams to score | Yes54% | No46% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.7%
- 1–010.6%
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.8%
- 3–16.1%
- 3–06.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Fluminense −1| Fluminense line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| -1 | 33% | 24% | 43% |
| -0.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| 0 | 57% | 23% | 20% |
| +0.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
| +1 | 80% | 13% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.