Botafogo RJ
1–1
Lost
Fluminense
The model leans Botafogo RJ at 40%. Expected goals: Botafogo RJ 1.55, Fluminense 1.26. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 58%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match43
27
30
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Botafogo RJ | 43% | 2.34 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.66 | – | – | – |
| 2Fluminense | 30% | 3.33 | – | – | – |
Pick: Botafogo RJ. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.55 – 1.26| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 3.5 | 31% | 69% |
| Both teams to score | Yes56% | No44% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.8%
- 1–09.3%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–17.6%
- 1–27.4%
- 2–07.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Botafogo RJ −0.5| Botafogo RJ line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| -1 | 22% | 22% | 56% |
| -0.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| 0 | 44% | 25% | 31% |
| +0.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
| +1 | 69% | 18% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.