Predictions · Major League Soccer · outside model coverage
Nashville SC
1–0
Won
CF Montreal
The model leans Nashville SC at 67%. Expected goals: Nashville SC 2.53, CF Montreal 0.70. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 53%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match76
16
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Nashville SC | 76% | 1.31 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 16% | 6.18 | – | – | – |
| 2CF Montreal | 7% | 13.37 | – | – | – |
Pick: Nashville SC. Calibrated probability 67% (raw model output 76%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 93%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.53 – 0.70| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 3.5 | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
- 2–012.7%
- 3–010.7%
- 1–010.0%
- 2–18.9%
- 3–17.5%
- 1–17.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 56% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Nashville SC −1.5| Nashville SC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| -1 | 55% | 22% | 23% |
| -0.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
| 0 | 77% | 15% | 8% |
| +0.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
| +1 | 92% | 6% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.