Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Hapoel Tel Aviv
The model leans Hapoel Tel Aviv at 51%. Expected goals: Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona 0.89, Hapoel Tel Aviv 1.76. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 50%. Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona won 1 of their last 3; Hapoel Tel Aviv won 2 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 18% | 5.69 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.93 | – | – | – |
| 2Hapoel Tel Aviv | 57% | 1.76 | – | – | – |
Pick: Hapoel Tel Aviv. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 57%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.89 – 1.76| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 3.5 | 28% | 72% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 0–112.4%
- 1–111.0%
- 0–211.0%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–07.0%
- 0–36.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 39% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Hapoel Tel Aviv −1| Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 6% | – | 94% |
| -1 | 6% | 13% | 81% |
| -0.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| 0 | 19% | 23% | 58% |
| +0.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| +1 | 42% | 25% | 33% |
| +1.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.