Hapoel Haifa
Hapoel Tel Aviv
The model leans Hapoel Tel Aviv at 54%. Expected goals: Hapoel Haifa 0.62, Hapoel Tel Aviv 1.72. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%. Hapoel Haifa won 1 of their last 3; Hapoel Tel Aviv won 2 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Hapoel Haifa | 12% | 8.29 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.98 | – | – | – |
| 2Hapoel Tel Aviv | 63% | 1.59 | – | – | – |
Pick: Hapoel Tel Aviv. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 63%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 88%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.62 – 1.72| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 79% |
| Both teams to score | Yes38% | No62% |
Most likely scores
- 0–116.5%
- 0–214.2%
- 1–110.3%
- 0–09.6%
- 1–28.9%
- 0–38.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Hapoel Tel Aviv −1| Hapoel Haifa line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 3% | – | 97% |
| -1 | 3% | 10% | 87% |
| -0.5 | 13% | – | 87% |
| 0 | 13% | 23% | 64% |
| +0.5 | 36% | – | 64% |
| +1 | 36% | 27% | 37% |
| +1.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.