Hapoel Haifa
Hapoel Beer Sheva
The model leans Hapoel Beer Sheva at 65%. Expected goals: Hapoel Haifa 0.79, Hapoel Beer Sheva 2.52. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 51%. Hapoel Haifa won 1 of their last 3; Hapoel Beer Sheva won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Hapoel Haifa | 9% | 11.25 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 17% | 5.91 | – | – | – |
| 2Hapoel Beer Sheva | 74% | 1.35 | – | – | – |
Pick: Hapoel Beer Sheva. Calibrated probability 65% (raw model output 74%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 91%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.79 – 2.52| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 3.5 | 42% | 58% |
| Both teams to score | Yes50% | No50% |
Most likely scores
- 0–211.6%
- 0–39.7%
- 0–19.2%
- 1–29.2%
- 1–37.7%
- 1–17.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Hapoel Beer Sheva −1.5| Hapoel Haifa line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 3% | – | 97% |
| -1 | 3% | 7% | 90% |
| -0.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| 0 | 10% | 15% | 75% |
| +0.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| +1 | 25% | 22% | 53% |
| +1.5 | 47% | – | 53% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.