Hapoel Beer Sheva
Hapoel Haifa
The model leans Hapoel Beer Sheva at 68%. Expected goals: Hapoel Beer Sheva 2.64, Hapoel Haifa 0.75. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 50%. Hapoel Beer Sheva won 1 of their last 4; Hapoel Haifa won 1 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Hapoel Beer Sheva | 77% | 1.30 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 16% | 6.44 | – | – | – |
| 2Hapoel Haifa | 8% | 13.16 | – | – | – |
Pick: Hapoel Beer Sheva. Calibrated probability 68% (raw model output 77%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 92%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.64 – 0.75| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 3.5 | 44% | 56% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 2–011.7%
- 3–010.3%
- 1–08.9%
- 2–18.8%
- 3–17.8%
- 4–06.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Hapoel Beer Sheva −2| Hapoel Beer Sheva line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| -1 | 56% | 21% | 22% |
| -0.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
| 0 | 78% | 14% | 8% |
| +0.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
| +1 | 92% | 6% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.