Predictions · Israeli Ligat Ha'al · outside model coverage

Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona

20
Won

Ironi Tiberias

The model leans Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona at 38%. Expected goals: Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1.75, Ironi Tiberias 1.60. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 67%. Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona won 1 of their last 3; Ironi Tiberias won 1 of their last 3.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona41%2.45
XDraw25%4.04
2Ironi Tiberias34%2.90

Pick: Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.75 – 1.60
LineOverUnder
1.585%15%
2.565%35%
3.543%57%
Both teams to scoreYes66%No34%

Most likely scores

  • 119.8%
  • 218.6%
  • 127.9%
  • 226.9%
  • 106.2%
  • 015.6%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona 0
Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.522%78%
-122%20%58%
-0.542%58%
042%23%35%
+0.565%35%
+165%18%17%
+1.583%17%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.