Predictions · Toto Cup Placement Matches · outside model coverage

Ironi Tiberias

03
Won

Maccabi Petach Tikva

The model leans Maccabi Petach Tikva at 44%. Expected goals: Ironi Tiberias 1.40, Maccabi Petach Tikva 1.86. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 65%. Ironi Tiberias won 1 of their last 3; Maccabi Petach Tikva won 3 of their last 3.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Ironi Tiberias28%3.56
XDraw25%4.07
2Maccabi Petach Tikva47%2.11

Pick: Maccabi Petach Tikva. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.40 – 1.86
LineOverUnder
1.584%16%
2.563%37%
3.541%59%
Both teams to scoreYes64%No36%

Most likely scores

  • 1110.0%
  • 129.3%
  • 017.1%
  • 217.0%
  • 026.6%
  • 226.5%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 56% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Maccabi Petach Tikva −0.5
Ironi Tiberias lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.513%87%
-113%16%71%
-0.529%71%
029%23%48%
+0.552%48%
+152%21%27%
+1.573%27%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.