Bnei Sakhnin
Maccabi Petach Tikva
The model leans Maccabi Petach Tikva at 56%. Expected goals: Bnei Sakhnin 0.69, Maccabi Petach Tikva 1.87. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%. Bnei Sakhnin won 1 of their last 3; Maccabi Petach Tikva won 3 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bnei Sakhnin | 12% | 8.29 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.27 | – | – | – |
| 2Maccabi Petach Tikva | 65% | 1.55 | – | – | – |
Pick: Maccabi Petach Tikva. Calibrated probability 56% (raw model output 65%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 88%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.69 – 1.87| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 2.5 | 47% | 53% |
| 3.5 | 26% | 74% |
| Both teams to score | Yes42% | No58% |
Most likely scores
- 0–114.4%
- 0–213.5%
- 1–110.0%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–38.4%
- 0–07.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 49% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Maccabi Petach Tikva −1| Bnei Sakhnin line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 3% | – | 97% |
| -1 | 3% | 10% | 87% |
| -0.5 | 13% | – | 87% |
| 0 | 13% | 21% | 66% |
| +0.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| +1 | 34% | 26% | 40% |
| +1.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.