Predictions · Israeli Ligat Ha'al · outside model coverage

Bnei Sakhnin

12
Won

Maccabi Petach Tikva

The model leans Maccabi Petach Tikva at 56%. Expected goals: Bnei Sakhnin 0.69, Maccabi Petach Tikva 1.87. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%. Bnei Sakhnin won 1 of their last 3; Maccabi Petach Tikva won 3 of their last 3.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Bnei Sakhnin12%8.29
XDraw23%4.27
2Maccabi Petach Tikva65%1.55

Pick: Maccabi Petach Tikva. Calibrated probability 56% (raw model output 65%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 88%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 0.69 – 1.87
LineOverUnder
1.573%27%
2.547%53%
3.526%74%
Both teams to scoreYes42%No58%

Most likely scores

  • 0114.4%
  • 0213.5%
  • 1110.0%
  • 129.3%
  • 038.4%
  • 007.7%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 49% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Maccabi Petach Tikva −1
Bnei Sakhnin lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.53%97%
-13%10%87%
-0.513%87%
013%21%66%
+0.534%66%
+134%26%40%
+1.560%40%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.