Bnei Sakhnin
Hapoel Petah Tikva
The model leans Hapoel Petah Tikva at 51%. Expected goals: Bnei Sakhnin 0.68, Hapoel Petah Tikva 1.52. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 60%. Bnei Sakhnin won 1 of their last 3; Hapoel Petah Tikva won 1 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bnei Sakhnin | 15% | 6.49 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.55 | – | – | – |
| 2Hapoel Petah Tikva | 56% | 1.77 | – | – | – |
Pick: Hapoel Petah Tikva. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 56%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 85%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.68 – 1.52| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 2.5 | 38% | 62% |
| 3.5 | 18% | 82% |
| Both teams to score | Yes38% | No62% |
Most likely scores
- 0–116.9%
- 0–212.8%
- 1–111.4%
- 0–011.1%
- 1–28.7%
- 1–07.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 56% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Hapoel Petah Tikva −1| Bnei Sakhnin line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 4% | – | 96% |
| -1 | 4% | 12% | 83% |
| -0.5 | 17% | – | 83% |
| 0 | 17% | 26% | 58% |
| +0.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| +1 | 42% | 27% | 30% |
| +1.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.