Maccabi Petach Tikva
Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona
The model leans Maccabi Petach Tikva at 50%. Expected goals: Maccabi Petach Tikva 2.03, Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1.45. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 67%. Maccabi Petach Tikva won 3 of their last 3; Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona won 1 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Maccabi Petach Tikva | 50% | 1.99 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.30 | – | – | – |
| 2Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 27% | 3.76 | – | – | – |
Pick: Maccabi Petach Tikva. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.03 – 1.45| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 86% | 14% |
| 2.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 3.5 | 46% | 54% |
| Both teams to score | Yes67% | No33% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.2%
- 1–19.1%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–26.6%
- 2–06.3%
- 1–06.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Maccabi Petach Tikva −0.5| Maccabi Petach Tikva line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| -1 | 30% | 21% | 49% |
| -0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| 0 | 51% | 21% | 28% |
| +0.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
| +1 | 72% | 15% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.