Maccabi Haifa
Hapoel Jerusalem FC
The model leans Maccabi Haifa at 55%. Expected goals: Maccabi Haifa 1.72, Hapoel Jerusalem FC 0.62. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%. Maccabi Haifa won 1 of their last 3; Hapoel Jerusalem FC won 1 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Maccabi Haifa | 63% | 1.58 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.00 | – | – | – |
| 2Hapoel Jerusalem FC | 12% | 8.46 | – | – | – |
Pick: Maccabi Haifa. Calibrated probability 55% (raw model output 63%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 88%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.72 – 0.62| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 79% |
| Both teams to score | Yes38% | No62% |
Most likely scores
- 1–016.6%
- 2–014.3%
- 1–110.2%
- 0–09.7%
- 2–18.8%
- 3–08.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Maccabi Haifa −1| Maccabi Haifa line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 37% | – | 63% |
| -1 | 37% | 27% | 36% |
| -0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| 0 | 64% | 23% | 13% |
| +0.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
| +1 | 87% | 10% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.