Hapoel Jerusalem FC
Maccabi Tel Aviv
The model leans Maccabi Tel Aviv at 61%. Expected goals: Hapoel Jerusalem FC 0.61, Maccabi Tel Aviv 1.97. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 60%. Hapoel Jerusalem FC won 1 of their last 3; Maccabi Tel Aviv won 4 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Hapoel Jerusalem FC | 10% | 10.35 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.61 | – | – | – |
| 2Maccabi Tel Aviv | 69% | 1.46 | – | – | – |
Pick: Maccabi Tel Aviv. Calibrated probability 61% (raw model output 69%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 90%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.61 – 1.97| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 2.5 | 48% | 52% |
| 3.5 | 26% | 74% |
| Both teams to score | Yes39% | No61% |
Most likely scores
- 0–115.0%
- 0–214.7%
- 0–39.6%
- 1–19.1%
- 1–29.0%
- 0–07.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 49% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Maccabi Tel Aviv −1.5| Hapoel Jerusalem FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 3% | – | 97% |
| -1 | 3% | 8% | 89% |
| -0.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| 0 | 11% | 20% | 70% |
| +0.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| +1 | 30% | 26% | 44% |
| +1.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.