Predictions · Toto Cup Placement Matches · outside model coverage

Maccabi Netanya

01
Won

Maccabi Tel Aviv

The model leans Maccabi Tel Aviv at 63%. Expected goals: Maccabi Netanya 1.39, Maccabi Tel Aviv 3.16. Over 2.5 goals 83%, both teams to score 72%. Maccabi Netanya won 1 of their last 3; Maccabi Tel Aviv won 4 of their last 4.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Maccabi Netanya13%7.61
XDraw15%6.64
2Maccabi Tel Aviv72%1.39

Pick: Maccabi Tel Aviv. Calibrated probability 63% (raw model output 72%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 87%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.39 – 3.16
LineOverUnder
1.594%6%
2.583%17%
3.566%34%
Both teams to scoreYes72%No28%

Most likely scores

  • 137.8%
  • 127.4%
  • 146.1%
  • 035.6%
  • 235.4%
  • 025.3%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Maccabi Tel Aviv −1.5
Maccabi Netanya lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.55%95%
-15%8%86%
-0.514%86%
014%14%72%
+0.528%72%
+128%19%54%
+1.546%54%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.