Maccabi Netanya
Maccabi Tel Aviv
The model leans Maccabi Tel Aviv at 63%. Expected goals: Maccabi Netanya 1.39, Maccabi Tel Aviv 3.16. Over 2.5 goals 83%, both teams to score 72%. Maccabi Netanya won 1 of their last 3; Maccabi Tel Aviv won 4 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Maccabi Netanya | 13% | 7.61 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 15% | 6.64 | – | – | – |
| 2Maccabi Tel Aviv | 72% | 1.39 | – | – | – |
Pick: Maccabi Tel Aviv. Calibrated probability 63% (raw model output 72%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 87%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.39 – 3.16| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 94% | 6% |
| 2.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 3.5 | 66% | 34% |
| Both teams to score | Yes72% | No28% |
Most likely scores
- 1–37.8%
- 1–27.4%
- 1–46.1%
- 0–35.6%
- 2–35.4%
- 0–25.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Maccabi Tel Aviv −1.5| Maccabi Netanya line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 5% | – | 95% |
| -1 | 5% | 8% | 86% |
| -0.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| 0 | 14% | 14% | 72% |
| +0.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| +1 | 28% | 19% | 54% |
| +1.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.