Predictions · Israeli Ligat Ha'al · outside model coverage

Beitar Jerusalem

14
Lost

Maccabi Netanya

The model leans Beitar Jerusalem at 67%. Expected goals: Beitar Jerusalem 3.13, Maccabi Netanya 1.12. Over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 65%. Beitar Jerusalem won 0 of their last 4; Maccabi Netanya won 1 of their last 3.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Beitar Jerusalem76%1.31
XDraw14%7.17
2Maccabi Netanya10%10.45

Pick: Beitar Jerusalem. Calibrated probability 67% (raw model output 76%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 90%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 3.13 – 1.12
LineOverUnder
1.592%8%
2.579%21%
3.561%39%
Both teams to scoreYes64%No36%

Most likely scores

  • 318.2%
  • 217.9%
  • 307.4%
  • 207.1%
  • 416.4%
  • 405.8%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Beitar Jerusalem −2
Beitar Jerusalem lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.558%42%
-158%19%23%
-0.577%23%
077%13%10%
+0.590%10%
+190%7%3%
+1.597%3%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.