Beitar Jerusalem
Maccabi Netanya
The model leans Beitar Jerusalem at 67%. Expected goals: Beitar Jerusalem 3.13, Maccabi Netanya 1.12. Over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 65%. Beitar Jerusalem won 0 of their last 4; Maccabi Netanya won 1 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Beitar Jerusalem | 76% | 1.31 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 14% | 7.17 | – | – | – |
| 2Maccabi Netanya | 10% | 10.45 | – | – | – |
Pick: Beitar Jerusalem. Calibrated probability 67% (raw model output 76%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 90%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 3.13 – 1.12| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 92% | 8% |
| 2.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 3.5 | 61% | 39% |
| Both teams to score | Yes64% | No36% |
Most likely scores
- 3–18.2%
- 2–17.9%
- 3–07.4%
- 2–07.1%
- 4–16.4%
- 4–05.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Beitar Jerusalem −2| Beitar Jerusalem line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| -1 | 58% | 19% | 23% |
| -0.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
| 0 | 77% | 13% | 10% |
| +0.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
| +1 | 90% | 7% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.