Ghazl Al Mahalla
Al Sharkeyah-ENPPI
The model leans Al Sharkeyah-ENPPI at 38%. Expected goals: Ghazl Al Mahalla 0.69, Al Sharkeyah-ENPPI 0.99. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 68%. Ghazl Al Mahalla won 0 of their last 3; Al Sharkeyah-ENPPI won 0 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Ghazl Al Mahalla | 23% | 4.26 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 36% | 2.75 | – | – | – |
| 2Al Sharkeyah-ENPPI | 40% | 2.49 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al Sharkeyah-ENPPI. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.69 – 0.99| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 2.5 | 24% | 76% |
| 3.5 | 9% | 91% |
| Both teams to score | Yes31% | No69% |
Most likely scores
- 0–018.8%
- 0–118.5%
- 1–012.9%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–29.1%
- 1–26.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 63% · BTTS No 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Ghazl Al Mahalla 0| Ghazl Al Mahalla line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 7% | – | 93% |
| -1 | 7% | 18% | 75% |
| -0.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| 0 | 25% | 34% | 41% |
| +0.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| +1 | 59% | 26% | 16% |
| +1.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.