Predictions · Premier League · outside model coverage

Al Ahly SC

32
Won

Al Sharkeyah-ENPPI

The model leans Al Ahly SC at 39%. Expected goals: Al Ahly SC 1.34, Al Sharkeyah-ENPPI 1.05. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 51%. Al Ahly SC won 3 of their last 3; Al Sharkeyah-ENPPI won 0 of their last 4.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Al Ahly SC42%2.38
XDraw30%3.33
2Al Sharkeyah-ENPPI28%3.57

Pick: Al Ahly SC. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 72%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.34 – 1.05
LineOverUnder
1.569%31%
2.543%57%
3.522%78%
Both teams to scoreYes48%No52%

Most likely scores

  • 1112.9%
  • 1012.3%
  • 019.7%
  • 009.2%
  • 218.6%
  • 208.2%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 53% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Al Ahly SC −0.5
Al Ahly SC lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.520%80%
-120%23%57%
-0.543%57%
043%27%29%
+0.571%29%
+171%18%11%
+1.589%11%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.