Al Ahly SC
Smouha SC
The model leans Al Ahly SC at 47%. Expected goals: Al Ahly SC 1.43, Smouha SC 0.87. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 55%. Al Ahly SC won 3 of their last 3; Smouha SC won 0 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al Ahly SC | 49% | 2.04 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.39 | – | – | – |
| 2Smouha SC | 22% | 4.64 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al Ahly SC. Calibrated probability 47% (raw model output 49%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.43 – 0.87| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 3.5 | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams to score | Yes44% | No56% |
Most likely scores
- 1–014.4%
- 1–112.5%
- 2–010.3%
- 0–010.1%
- 2–18.9%
- 0–18.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al Ahly SC −0.5| Al Ahly SC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| -1 | 25% | 25% | 50% |
| -0.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| 0 | 50% | 27% | 23% |
| +0.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
| +1 | 77% | 15% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.