Al Masry SC
Smouha SC
The model leans Al Masry SC at 37%. Expected goals: Al Masry SC 1.02, Smouha SC 0.81. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 63%. Al Masry SC won 3 of their last 4; Smouha SC won 0 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al Masry SC | 38% | 2.62 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 35% | 2.85 | – | – | – |
| 2Smouha SC | 27% | 3.73 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al Masry SC. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.02 – 0.81| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 2.5 | 28% | 72% |
| 3.5 | 11% | 89% |
| Both teams to score | Yes35% | No65% |
Most likely scores
- 1–016.4%
- 0–016.2%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–113.0%
- 2–08.3%
- 2–16.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al Masry SC 0| Al Masry SC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 24% | 60% |
| -0.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| 0 | 40% | 32% | 28% |
| +0.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
| +1 | 72% | 19% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.