Predictions · Premier League · outside model coverage

Al Masry SC

10
Won

Smouha SC

The model leans Al Masry SC at 37%. Expected goals: Al Masry SC 1.02, Smouha SC 0.81. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 63%. Al Masry SC won 3 of their last 4; Smouha SC won 0 of their last 3.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Al Masry SC38%2.62
XDraw35%2.85
2Smouha SC27%3.73

Pick: Al Masry SC. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 73%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.02 – 0.81
LineOverUnder
1.554%46%
2.528%72%
3.511%89%
Both teams to scoreYes35%No65%

Most likely scores

  • 1016.4%
  • 0016.2%
  • 1113.2%
  • 0113.0%
  • 208.3%
  • 216.7%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Al Masry SC 0
Al Masry SC lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.515%85%
-115%24%60%
-0.540%60%
040%32%28%
+0.572%28%
+172%19%9%
+1.591%9%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.