Predictions · Premier League · outside model coverage

Ghazl Al Mahalla

03
Won

Pyramids FC

The model leans Pyramids FC at 50%. Expected goals: Ghazl Al Mahalla 0.95, Pyramids FC 1.54. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 51%. Ghazl Al Mahalla won 0 of their last 3; Pyramids FC won 3 of their last 3.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Ghazl Al Mahalla22%4.52
XDraw28%3.56
2Pyramids FC50%2.01

Pick: Pyramids FC. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 78%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 0.95 – 1.54
LineOverUnder
1.571%29%
2.545%55%
3.524%76%
Both teams to scoreYes48%No52%

Most likely scores

  • 0112.8%
  • 1112.1%
  • 029.8%
  • 129.3%
  • 008.3%
  • 107.9%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Pyramids FC −0.5
Ghazl Al Mahalla lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.58%92%
-18%15%77%
-0.523%77%
023%26%51%
+0.549%51%
+149%25%26%
+1.574%26%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.