Modern Sport FC
Ghazl Al Mahalla
The model leans Draw at 37%. Expected goals: Modern Sport FC 0.58, Ghazl Al Mahalla 0.87. Over 2.5 goals 82%, both teams to score 73%. Modern Sport FC won 1 of their last 3; Ghazl Al Mahalla won 0 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Modern Sport FC | 22% | 4.55 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 39% | 2.55 | – | – | – |
| 2Ghazl Al Mahalla | 39% | 2.58 | – | – | – |
Pick: Draw. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.58 – 0.87| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 2.5 | 18% | 82% |
| 3.5 | 6% | 94% |
| Both teams to score | Yes26% | No74% |
Most likely scores
- 0–023.5%
- 0–120.3%
- 1–013.7%
- 1–111.9%
- 0–28.8%
- 1–25.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 69% · BTTS No 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Modern Sport FC 0| Modern Sport FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 6% | – | 94% |
| -1 | 6% | 17% | 77% |
| -0.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| 0 | 23% | 37% | 40% |
| +0.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
| +1 | 60% | 26% | 14% |
| +1.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.