El Gouna FC
Modern Sport FC
The model leans El Gouna FC at 37%. Expected goals: El Gouna FC 0.87, Modern Sport FC 0.54. Over 2.5 goals 83%, both teams to score 74%. El Gouna FC won 0 of their last 3; Modern Sport FC won 1 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1El Gouna FC | 40% | 2.50 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 40% | 2.53 | – | – | – |
| 2Modern Sport FC | 20% | 4.88 | – | – | – |
Pick: El Gouna FC. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.87 – 0.54| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 2.5 | 17% | 83% |
| 3.5 | 6% | 94% |
| Both teams to score | Yes24% | No76% |
Most likely scores
- 0–024.3%
- 1–021.2%
- 0–113.2%
- 1–111.5%
- 2–09.2%
- 2–15.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 69% · BTTS No 60%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: El Gouna FC −0.5| El Gouna FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 27% | 59% |
| -0.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| 0 | 41% | 37% | 22% |
| +0.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
| +1 | 78% | 17% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.