Predictions · Premier League · outside model coverage

Ceramica Cleopatra

20
Won

Modern Sport FC

The model leans Ceramica Cleopatra at 46%. Expected goals: Ceramica Cleopatra 1.13, Modern Sport FC 0.56. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 70%. Ceramica Cleopatra won 2 of their last 3; Modern Sport FC won 1 of their last 3.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Ceramica Cleopatra49%2.06
XDraw34%2.90
2Modern Sport FC17%5.90

Pick: Ceramica Cleopatra. Calibrated probability 46% (raw model output 49%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 83%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.13 – 0.56
LineOverUnder
1.550%50%
2.524%76%
3.59%91%
Both teams to scoreYes29%No71%

Most likely scores

  • 1021.0%
  • 0018.6%
  • 2011.8%
  • 1111.6%
  • 0110.3%
  • 216.6%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 61% · BTTS No 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Ceramica Cleopatra −0.5
Ceramica Cleopatra lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.521%79%
-121%28%50%
-0.550%50%
050%32%18%
+0.582%18%
+182%14%4%
+1.596%4%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.